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沃伦·巴菲特最划算的买卖

像沃伦·巴菲特这样的投资既不是艺术,也不是科学。相反,它是一种对人性的研究,是一种遵循世俗道路的意愿。正如奥马哈先知所证明的,无聊不等于无利可图。他的投资通常反映最基本的产品和服务…

像沃伦·巴菲特这样的投资既不是艺术,也不是科学。相反,它是一种对人性的研究,是一种遵循世俗道路的意愿。正如奥马哈先知所证明的,无聊不等于无利可图。他的投资通常反映最基本的产品和服务,从刀片和洗衣液等消费品到软饮料和汽车保险。(关于沃伦·巴菲特和他目前持有的股票的更多信息,请查阅《燕尾投资者》。)

巴菲特战略的一个基本原则是投资于他认为将提供长期价值投资的公司,而不是投资于短期内可能有利可图但在可预见的未来可能会过时的时尚或技术。他的投资以他的名言为指导:“以公平的价格收购一家优秀的公司,远胜于以出色的价格收购一家优秀的公司。”

选择具有长期价值的投资1987年,巴菲特有一句名言:“我告诉你我为什么喜欢烟草业。做这个要花一便士。卖一块钱。会上瘾的。品牌忠诚度非常高。”虽然他后来表示,烟草行业的问题让他改变了对它的看法,但这一声明总结了巴菲特对完美投资的描述。

巴菲特的控股公司,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(纽约证券交易所:BRK)。A),其投资组合既包括全资子公司,如盖科汽车保险公司和本杰明·摩尔公司,也包括上市公司的大量股份。例如,伯克希尔·哈撒韦是可口可乐(纽约证券交易所:KO)和卡夫食品(纽约证券交易所:KFT)的最大股东,这两个品牌在美国超市随处可见。要找到最近持有的股票,请查阅美国证券交易委员会表格13F。(在《了解商业模式》中,学会评估企业创收的系统。)

虽然这些投资是有利可图的,但巴菲特最天真的选择是他购买了西氏糖果和吉列。这两家公司看起来都很普通,以至于他们都不相信自己的市场份额和创造利润的能力,而这是大多数公司梦寐以求的。让我们深入了解一下。

Example 1: See\'s Candy: The Perfect Business ModelIn 1972, Buffett purchased See\'s Candy from the See family for $25 million. See\'s has been around since 1921, and its stores, designed to look like they belong onMain Street in a traditional American village, can be found throughout the western United States as well in many airports. Their selection is neither trendy nor flashy; the company offers the type of fare that while not in style, also never goes out of fashion. Over the ensuing decades, Buffett invested another $32 million into the business. Since its acquisition, the seemingly nominal confection and retail manufacturer has returned $1.35 billion to its owners.What attracted Buffett to this investment? Primarily, it was a highly profitable business with extraordinarily attractive fundamentals. Its pretax earnings were 60% of its invested capital. As a cash business, accounts receivable was not an issue. As for cash flow, the rapid turnover of products combined with a short distribution cycle minimized inventories. Operating strategies, such as increasing prices before Valentine\'s Day, provided extra revenue that went straight to the bottom line.Thus, this seemingly nominal enterprise was a perfect business model. In addition to financing its own growth over the years, See\'s has proved itself to be a valuable cash cow whose profits offer Berkshire Hathaway another internal source of revenues with which to make other acquisitions. (For related reading, see Spotting Cash Cows.)

Example 2: Gillette: Another Great Success StoryGillette provides another example of Buffett\'s investment strategy. In 1989, Gillette was a company with core products that were so firmly entrenched in the marketplace that seemingly every household in America used them. Gillette\'s razors, and more significantly the razor blades that fit them, once provided 71% of the company\'s profits and held a huge market share as the top brand in the United States. The company\'s Papermate pens, pencils, erasers and Liquid Paper, equally lacking in glamour, were sold in every venue imaginable, from stationery stores to supermarkets to newsstands. White Rain shampoo, Rite Guard and Dry Idea antiperspirants, and Gillette Foamy shaving cream were all powerful name brands, which together represented $1 billion in sales in 1989. During the 1980s, the razor industry was shaken up as disposable razors initially took away a significant share of sales from Gillette. In 1988, Coniston Partners attempted a hostile takeover of the Gillette company. Gillette won that battle, and in 1989, the company redefined the industry with the introduction of the Sensor Razor, a product that appealed to men\'s desire for a high quality/high tech product and reinvigorated the company\'s sales and profits. That same year, Buffett stepped in with a $600 million purchase of preferred stock, making Berkshire Hathaway the owner of 11% of the consumer goods company, a seat on the board and a healthy $52.5 million annual dividend. Through the 1990s, Gillette\'s stock price gave Berkshire Hathaway a significant paper profit. In less than 24 months, the $600 million investment was worth $850 million. (Learn about the strategies corporations use to protect themselves from unwanted acquisitions in Corporate Takeover Defense: A Shareholder\'s Perspective.)

耐心付出巴菲特的惯用伎俩是耐心,所以他没有清算自己的持股,而是立即获利。相反,他继续表现出对吉列管理层的信心,尽管该公司投资数百万美元进行研发,并收购了另一个经典的美国品牌——金霸王。2005年,宝洁公司对吉列的收购使伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票价值超过50亿美元,并使伯克希尔哈撒韦成为世界领先消费品制造商的最大股东。由于P&G符合巴菲特的标准,是一家拥有许多美国最受欢迎的品牌的公司,他向华尔街保证,他不仅会持有这些股票,还会增加他在公司的地位。

如果巴菲特将最初的6亿美元投资于标准普尔500指数,而不是P&G,其股息前的价值只会增长到22亿美元。(要了解更多有关股息的信息,请阅读您可能不知道的股息事实。)

虽然赛氏和吉列看似截然不同,但巴菲特认识到,两家公司都拥有一个公司能够实现的最有价值的公式:盈利和永恒的名牌产品。盒装糖果几代人以来一直是美国社会的主要产品,而赛斯糖果是如此受欢迎的产品,以至于该公司甚至在大萧条时期也有所增长。吉列的剃须产品满足了永远不会消失的需求,其产品已经在美国和世界各地的家庭中找到。

在财务上,这两项业务都反映了被证明是成功的战略。像香水一样,生产盒装糖果的成本通常比产品的包装和营销成本低。这转化为非凡的利润。吉列开创并仍然占据主导地位的剃须刀刀片业务是一种商业模式的最初例子,这种商业模式将较大的、不常购买的产品(剃须刀)赠送给顾客,以便在顾客的余生中向他们出售较小的、重复购买的产品(一次性刀片)。这被称为剃刀-剃刀刀片模型。(更多信息,请阅读《像沃伦·巴菲特一样思考》和《沃伦·巴菲特:他是如何做到的》。)

结论复制巴菲特投资策略的第一步,是找到具有长期价值、股票定价合理的优秀公司。下一步是远离场外,进行投资。在巴菲特收购之前,See是有利可图的,就像吉列在华尔街已经被认为是一项理想的投资一样。正是巴菲特愿意放下他的现金,长期持有这些股票,这使他与那些只关注和等待的人不同。

巴菲特将他的策略描述为“瑞普·凡·温克尔方法”,这是以美国作家华盛顿·欧文著名短篇小说的主角为原型的,他在20年后睡着了,醒来了。完美的时机很难实现,但巴菲特解释说,“当别人贪婪时,我们只是试图恐惧,只有当别人恐惧时,我们才贪婪。”

要了解如何通过使用表格13F来获取沃伦·巴菲特的利润,请阅读建立一个婴儿伯克希尔。

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作者: 爱财富网

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