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经常账户赤字:政府投资还是不负责任?

经常账户是一个国家国际收支中记录其经常交易的部分。该账户分为四个部分:货物、服务、收入(如工资和投资收入)和单边转账(如工人汇款)。 当一个国家的经常账户盈余超过构成该账户的四个因…

经常账户是一个国家国际收支中记录其经常交易的部分。该账户分为四个部分:货物、服务、收入(如工资和投资收入)和单边转账(如工人汇款)。

当一个国家的经常账户盈余超过构成该账户的四个因素中的一个或多个时,就会出现经常账户赤字。当前交易进入账户时,记录为贷方;当价值离开账户时,它被标记为借方。基本上,经常账户赤字发生在支付的钱比带入一个国家的钱多的时候。

赤字意味着什么

当一个经常账户出现赤字时,通常意味着一个国家在国外的投资多于在国内的储蓄。通常,决定一个国家投资决策的逻辑是,赚钱需要钱。为了提高国内生产总值(GDP)和未来的增长,一个国家可能会负债,承担对其他国家的债务。然后,它就变成了世界上所谓的“净债务人”。然而,如果一个政府没有规划出一个合理的经济政策,没有将债务用于消费目的,而不是未来的增长,就可能出现有问题的赤字。(更多见解,参见《看国债与国债》。)

经常账户赤字意味着一个国家的经济是靠借来的手段运转的。换句话说,其他国家本质上是在为经济融资,因此维持赤字。在确定一个国家的经济健康状况时,理解赤字来自哪里、如何融资以及有什么可能的解决方案来缓解赤字是很重要的。为此,我们不仅要看经常账户,还要看国际收支的其他两个部分,即资本账户和金融账户。

The Capital and Financial Accounts
Foreign funds entering a country from the sale or purchase oftangible assets - as opposed to non-physical assets such as stocks or bonds - are recorded in the capital account of the BOP. (Again, money entering the account is noted as a credit, and money leaving the account is a debit.) Financial transactions such as money leaving the country for investment abroad are recorded in the financial account. Together, these two accounts provide financing for a current account deficit.

为什么会有赤字?

经常账户赤字仅仅是政府糟糕的计划和/或无法控制的支出和消费的问题吗?有时候。但通常情况下,赤字计划的目的是帮助一个经济体的发展和增长。它也可能是经济强劲的标志,是外国资金的避风港(我们将在下面解释这一点)。当一个经济体处于转型或改革状态,或者正在追求积极的增长战略时,今天的赤字可以为明天的国内消费和投资提供资金。以下是各国经历的一些计划内和计划外赤字类型。

Balance of Trade Deficit With the long-term in mind, a country may run a deficit by importing more than it's exporting, with the ultimate goal of producing finished goods for export. In this scenario, the country will plan to pay off the temporary excess of imports at a later time with proceeds made from future export sales. The proceeds made from these sales would then become a current account credit. (To learn more, read In Praise Of Trade Deficits.)Investing for the Future Instead of saving money now, a country could also choose to invest abroad in order to reap the rewards in the future. The outing funds would be recorded as a debit in the financial account, while the corresponding incoming investment income would eventually be earmarked as a credit in the current account. Often, a current account deficit coincides with depletion in a country's foreign reserves (limited resources of foreign currency available to invest abroad).Foreign Investors When foreign investors send money into the domestic economy, the latter must eventually pay out the returns due to the foreign investors. As such, a deficit may be a result of the claims foreigners have on the local economy (recorded as a debit in the current account). This kind of deficit could also be a sign of a strong, efficient and transparent local economy, in which foreign money finds a safe place for investment. The United States capital market, for example, was seen as such when "quality assets" were sought out by investors burned in the Asian crisis. The U.S. experienced a surge of foreign investment into its capital markets. And while the U.S. received money that could help increase domestic productivity and hence expand its economy, all of those investments would have to be paid off in the form of returns (dividends, capital gains), which are debits in the current account. So a deficit could be the result of increased claims by foreign investors, whose money is used to increase local productivity and stimulate the economy.Overspending Without Enough Income Sometimes governments spend more than they earn, simply due to ill-advised economic planning. Money may be spent on costly imports while local productivity lags behind. Or, it may be deemed a priority for the government to spend on the military rather than economic production. Whatever the reason, a deficit will ensue if credits and debits do not balance.

为赤字融资

Public and Private Foreign Funds Funding channeled into the capital and financial accounts (remember, these accounts finance the deficits in the current account) can come from both public (official) and private sources. Governments, which account for official capital flows, often buy and sell foreign currencies. Credit from these sales is recorded in the financial account. Private sources, whether institutions or individuals, may be receiving money from some sort of foreign direct investment (FDI) scheme, which appears as a debit in the income section of the current account but, when investment income is finally received, becomes a credit.Balanced Financing To avoid unnecessary extra risks associated with investing money abroad, the financing of the deficit should ideally rely on a combination of long-term and short-term funds rather than one or the other. If, for example, a foreign capital market suddenly collapses, it can no longer provide another country with investment income. The same would be true if a country borrows money and political differences cut the credit line. However, by planning to receive recurrent investment income over the years, such as by means of an FDI project, a country could intelligently finance its current account deficit.Capital Flight In times of global recession, the financing of a deficit can sometimes be traced to capital flight, that is, private individuals and corporations sending their money into "safe" economies. This money is recorded as a credit in the current account but, in reality, it is not a reliable source of financing. In fact, it is a strong indication that the world economy is slowing and may not be able to provide financing in the near future.

底线

为了确定一个国家的经济是否疲软,知道为什么会出现赤字以及如何为赤字融资是很重要的。对一些国家来说,赤字可能是经济困难的标志,对另一些国家来说,则是经济健康的标志。为了支撑世界各国的经常账户赤字,全球经济必须足够强劲,这样出口才能被购买,投资收入才能得到回报。然而,经常账户赤字往往无法持续太久——目前的消费是否会导致后代长期负债,这是一个广泛争论的问题。

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作者: 爱财富网

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